Can Pep Guardiola rely on Julian Alvarez in midfield against strong opposition?

Three games without a victory is hardly a disaster, particularly when those matches are against Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur.

But for Manchester City, those six dropped points might prove crucial come the end of the season. There have been various common themes from those three matches, including missed chances and late concessions. From the balance of play, it’s clear City have been dominant and should have put the matches to bed, but after a 3-3 draw against a Tottenham side without any proper centre-backs and shorn of their best player so far this season, James Maddison, it’s also fair to look at whether Pep Guardiola has found the right balance, particularly with his use of Julian Alvarez.

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Alvarez has enjoyed a truly remarkable 12 months, leading the line as Argentina won the World Cup before playing a crucial role in City’s treble-winning campaign. He’s made himself almost undroppable and in the absence of Kevin De Bruyne has been converted into an attacking No 8. By and large, he’s performed well in that role, but it constitutes something of a gamble in big matches, where City need more control.

City are unusually light in midfield this season. De Bruyne has only played 20 minutes, Ilkay Gundogan hasn’t been properly replaced, and John Stones’ ability to step forward into midfield has been badly missed. Manuel Akanji is manfully performing that role but with less guile and confidence on the ball than Stones. That means Rodri, largely excellent in front of the defence, is forced to get through too much work, with and without possession.

With Stones fit or with Gundogan alongside Rodri, the use of Alvarez might not be a problem. But Alvarez’s role is more fluid than we’d generally expect of City’s No 8s. He’s allowed to push forward in support of Erling Haaland more and is given the freedom to stay central rather than drift wide.

Here’s one example from the draw against Tottenham. City, as always, are attacking with five players, but rather than supporting Jeremy Doku with movement into the channel, Alvarez is more focused on remaining central and pushing into the box like a second striker.

And the particularly surprising thing about Guardiola’s system yesterday was that he elected to use Alvarez to the left and Bernardo Silva to the right. That’s the reverse of his usual approach this season and odd considering how many problems Bernardo caused with his runs into the left channel against Manchester United and last week against Liverpool.

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With those No 8s switched, City offered less threat out wide. They were effectively playing two pairs of players on either flank who wanted to end up inside — Doku and Alvarez from the left are right-footed, while Bernardo and Phil Foden from the right are left-footed. This isn’t the first time Guardiola has done this — it was a feature, for example, of a game away at Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds three years ago. Perhaps he favours this approach against teams playing a high line when he wants more directness rather than balls from wide.

But City looked disjointed in this situation and while they created more than enough chances to win the game, these generally came from pressing rather than good approach play.

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Here’s another example of Doku on the ball and whereas against Liverpool he would have had Bernardo sprinting around the outside, taking a defender away and allowing him to cut into space, here Doku is crowded out and has to attempt a difficult shot with his left foot.

Here, Alvarez plays in Doku and again stays central. Doku initially has more space to work with and ends up cutting onto his right foot and hitting the bar, but again it’s a difficult shot, with two defenders in his way.

Bernardo, too, appeared less effective from the right. He still made those bursts into the channels, like when Foden received the ball here, but if Foden had played the ball through to him, as a left-footed player, the angle wouldn’t have been as promising for Bernardo to play the ball across the box towards Haaland. Had this run been made on the opposite side (or if Alvarez had been making this run instead of Bernardo), the task of crossing to Haaland would have been simpler.

At times, Bernardo was indecisive when receiving the ball in those right-sided positions — although good at cutting inside from the right flank, he’s less dangerous when starting in inside-right positions. Here he runs into traffic and again, if Foden was offering a right-footed option and stretching play properly, Bernardo could have slipped him in for a ball across the box into Haaland.

Some of City’s better moments, tellingly, came when Bernardo and Alvarez switched positions to their usual roles. Here, they’re pressing Tottenham with Bernardo to the right and Alvarez to the left. But they ended up swapping while closing down and Bernardo plays the ball in behind for Alvarez to strike against the post.

Here, they combine down the left after Alvarez has won the ball high and Bernardo is waiting in the channel to collect the scraps. His subsequent cutback finds Haaland, who somehow drags wide of an open goal.

Twenty minutes later, there was a similar situation when Alvarez played in Bernardo down the left — again, he was able to play that classic City ball across the box towards Haaland, but Ben Davies intercepted.

Maybe this was Guardiola’s game plan — maybe he wanted Bernardo to pop up in the left channel unannounced and combine with Alvarez to overload Tottenham in that zone. That, however, goes against many of Guardiola’s usual principles.

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Particularly frustrating, in terms of City’s use of Alvarez, was their concession of the second goal.

Here, City are in their usual format, with Bernardo and Alvarez a long way ahead of Rodri, who is covering a huge space in the middle. When Akanji plays the ball up to Alvarez, the Argentine tries to flick it around the corner to Haaland. That’s precisely what you’d expect of a striker playing in midfield — Alvarez is effectively trying to get a classic strike duo move going with Haaland. But Davies gets there first and nods the ball straight through City’s midfield and into Son. Eventually, Giovani Lo Celso thumps the ball in from the edge of the box, all thanks to that cheap turnover from Alvarez.

At times this season, Alvarez has been fantastic, particularly in victories over Fulham, West Ham and Wolves, when he has combined well with Haaland. In those matches, against sides sitting deep, the value of a bonus centre-forward in midfield is obvious.

But in matches against big opposition, Guardiola might need a re-think. Alvarez’s main qualities are his pressing, his set pieces and his goal threat. He offers less in terms of positional discipline and reliable passing. Those used to be the main two tenets of Guardiola’s approach. For the tricky-looking trip to Aston Villa in midweek, he may decide to be more cautious.

(Top photo: Getty Images)

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