Why I was wrong about Mel Tucker and Michigan State: Recruiting mailbag

Publish date: 2024-06-04

On Sept. 18, The Athletic reported that Michigan State provided Mel Tucker with written notice of intent to terminate his contract for cause.

Recruiting never stops. Neither do your questions.

And if we didn’t get to your question, don’t be discouraged! We will be addressing some on “Stars Matter,” our weekly recruiting podcast, which can be found on the feed of “The Andy Staples Show.” Look for new episodes every Thursday morning.

(Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.)

Any comment on the type of recruits Mel tucker is getting to campus or are you still under the wrong assumption we’re plucking under-recruited two-stars from Ohio like you said in your January mailbag? — Christopher C.

One of the things that is forever burned into the frontal lobe of my brain from the time I covered Ohio State was just how good Mark Dantonio was at his job. I’m not necessarily sure how the Michigan State faithful view him in the present day, but for my money, there isn’t a coach who got more out of his program than Dantonio did during those fun stretches in East Lansing a half-decade ago.

So when I make comments about Michigan State targeting three-star prospects in Ohio, the intent isn’t to be disparaging. You have to remember that I had a front-row seat to watch Michigan State recruit that way, develop those players and knock off Ohio State multiple times en route to Big Ten titles. When Michigan State hired Tucker — an Ohio native with stints at Ohio State and Alabama on his resume — it was a safe assumption that he would be able to go into Ohio and clean up the same way Dantonio did. If you Google it, I think you’ll find that I wrote that I’d take Tucker at Michigan over Jim Harbaugh. You can imagine those comments didn’t go over well.

But I have something to admit: I was wrong. And it honestly feels good to say that sometimes.

Tucker will go into Ohio and get his guys. Even if he didn’t do so in the 2022 cycle, Ohio is too crucial of a recruiting territory for Michigan State not to attack. And they’ll attack it well. The thing I was wrong about? Tucker’s approach. Tucker is going big. As of a few weeks ago, no other program in college football has more talent locked in for official visits.

📊Let's Visualize Official Visit (OV) Summer

▫️Michigan State leads in total talent scheduled to visit & percent of allocated OVs confirmed
▫️UGA is a close 2nd, with >50% of their OVs locked in
▫️UF, Ohio St, and Michigan all in a next tier w/ ~40% of their visits scheduled pic.twitter.com/PFjGfRhjcq

— Joshua "Bud" Davis, PhD (@JBudDavis) May 23, 2022

This weekend alone, Michigan State is set to host five-star offensive tackle Samson Okunlola of Braintree (Mass.) Thayer Academy, four-star cornerback Caleb Presely of Seattle (Wash.) Rainier Beach, four-star defensive lineman Enow Etta of Colleyville (Texas) Covenant Christian Academy, four-star safety Ryan Yaites of Denton (Texas) Guyer, four-star linebacker Jamal Anderson of Hoschton (Ga.) Mill Creek and four-star linebacker Jordan Hall of Bradenton (Fla.) IMG. Every one of those players is rated in the top 200 nationally.

That’s a national recruiting strategy. That’s what the big boys do.

I have to say, this is what you want to see from Michigan State if it is going to pay its coach $100 million. Tucker is the fourth-highest-paid coach in college football, and with that comes the expectation that the Spartans are going to be one of the best programs in the Big Ten. And in some years, beat Ohio State, win the Big Ten title and go to the College Football Playoff — the same way Dantonio did.

For me to say that Michigan State was going to go the developmental route and focus on Ohio was misguided. That’s the strategy I would take because I’ve seen it work, but maybe that’s not the $100 million strategy. Maybe Tucker wants more.

There’s a risk with that. If Michigan State spends this much time and resources recruiting nationally only to finish second in the bulk of these pursuits, things could get bad. It’s important to have a hat on the table. But it’s even more important to be the hat these elite-level prospects choose.

In the 2022 cycle, Michigan State signed the No. 199 overall player — four-star defensive lineman Alex VanSumeren of Essexville (Mich.) Garber. He was the only top-200 player in the entire class. That’s not good enough.

In the current cycle, Michigan State has a commitment from four-star defensive lineman Andrew Depaepe of Bettendorf (Iowa) Pleasant Valley, the No. 150 overall player. He’s the only top-200 player in the class so far. That’s not good enough, either. But it’s way too early in the cycle — with plenty of visits ahead — to cast judgment in June. Michigan State, of course, hopes that the number of official visits it has planned directly correlates to commitments and ultimately signatures. This cycle will be huge for Michigan State, and I’m excited to see how it all turns out.

For now, I’m sorry for being wrong. I’m human.

What’s your assessment of Ryan Day’s $13 million NIL, and how would you allocate such a figure across a roster? Is that budget number higher or lower at Ohio State than it’d be at a middle-class Power 5 that isn’t established as an NFL factory? — Zach H.

That’s about what I’d anticipate at a place like Ohio State.

The thing you have to keep in mind about Ohio State is that it’s a football factory in a major city. There are a ton of opportunities for these players, whether it be making a social media post about a local car dealership or modeling for Express. That’s a specific example because that’s what quarterback C.J. Stroud and receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba have done. There are a ton of big companies in Columbus, and everyone in town is Ohio State crazy. It’s a city with a college town vibe.

How would it be allocated? If you took $13 million and divided it by 85 players, you’d have about $150,000 per scholarship player. That’s not what’s happening, though. You’d have to anticipate that players like Stroud, Smith-Njigba, running back TreVeyon Henderson and others are probably pulling in the bulk of that. And second-stringers with big followings from their recruitment are also probably pocketing a nice little chunk of change.

The interesting thing about that figure is that it isn’t for incoming prospects. It’s for the current roster. Day and Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith were very careful about making sure that was stressed, for two reasons. One, they aren’t sure what the NCAA may try to enforce in the future as it pertains to potential inducement allegations (though I think that’ll be impossible to enforce). And two, they wanted to send a clear and obvious message to those raising the funds that this money is absolutely needed to keep the Buckeyes competitive in this evolving space. They also want recruits who may not be getting the types of NIL offers you read about on Twitter to know that if you go to Ohio State, you’re going to get paid — especially if you become a good, productive player. Stroud isn’t hurting for cash right now.

I’d anticipate that dollar amount is way above what the average middle-tier program in the Power 5 would need. When you think about it, there aren’t many players in college football who are as valuable as Stroud (or any starting quarterback at Ohio State, for that matter). Ohio State wants to be competitive in this space, but it doesn’t want to win the race and draw any extra attention — whether that’s rational or not.

What I will find interesting is how that dollar figure will evolve over time. Will it get larger year by year with inflation? Or will the people cutting the checks react to the setting of a market and bring down those totals? The general assumption — and probably the safe one — is that it is just going to keep getting larger and larger because nothing in college football spending has ever reached a cap. It’s just important to remember that these are evolving times and a lot is changing at once. Who knows what this will look like in five years.

Dabo Swinney has made it clear that he plans on running his program his way at the risk of getting passed by other programs. This week he broke from precedent by allowing official visits in the summer and offering two 2024 quarterbacks at the same time. How important are these changes for Clemson’s future recruiting success? — Dalton W.

They’re huge.

Last week I said in the mailbag that I’d sell stock in Clemson. That wasn’t because I don’t think Dabo Swinney is a genius or deserves to be viewed as one of the all-time great coaches in this sport. I’ve said it 1,000 times, and I’ll say it again: What he built at Clemson is the second-most impressive thing anyone has done in the sport outside of the dynasty Nick Saban created at Alabama.

But what is Saban’s genius? The ability to constantly adapt and keep up with the times. Can you imagine him saying he’d do something (or not do something), to borrow from your question, “at the risk of getting passed by other programs?” I sure can’t.

If you haven’t noticed by now, Swinney likes to say a lot of things without thinking them through. But none of this is surprising. Not allowing summer official visits would have been the equivalent of sticking with AOL in the current age of the internet. There are things a coach has no choice but to keep up with, whether he likes it or not. College football is about adapting or dying, and being late to the party on things can kill a program.

Clemson’s brand has staying power. And even though it lost a large portion of its staff, I believe that Swinney can keep the Tigers at the top if he just gives in and runs his program like Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia. That means full buy-in to the transfer portal, official visits in the summer and offering young quarterbacks before he deems appropriate. Oh, and there’s another big one. He has to fully embrace NIL.

I’ve had a few coaches tell me that Clemson doesn’t emphasize it enough in its recruiting pitch. They’ll come in and have this great pitch and make the recruit excited about Clemson, then the next assistant will come in and start talking about NIL earning potential, and then the recruitment shifts. Clemson lost at least one player last year as a result of that. That has to change as well.

It’s a good sign to see him punt on some of the stubbornness. But I won’t go back to being all-in on Clemson until I see him finally embrace the evolution.

Is the Wendy’s 4 for $4 the best value for money combo meal out there? — Jonathan G.

It’s a pretty solid deal. You can never go wrong with beef, chicken nuggets, fries and a drink all in one meal. You’ll never catch me scoffing at how much food you get for $4 there.

That said, I’m not a big Wendy’s guy. I think it has the worst french fries in fast food, and it always takes way too long to get your food. When I do go there (which is very rare), I like the spicy chicken sandwich (which may be the best chicken sandwich in the game), but that sandwich alone costs more than the 4 for $4 deal.

Though I think you could make the case that’s the best you can do with $4, price isn’t really something I consider when I go to these places. I’m not saying it’s bad to do it, but I’d rather get what I want than try to get as much food as possible for $4. That means I’ll splurge for the menu items that really get my motor running, even if the total bill is $10. I can live with that. But if you’re looking for good value and you don’t mind waiting an hour for your food and bad fries, then Wendy’s is a good choice.

(Photo: Mike Mulholland / Getty Images)

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Why I was wrong about Mel Tucker and Michigan State: Recruiting mailbag